Singapore, India and UAE Emerge as Middle-Power Hubs in a Fragmented Global Trade Order

SINGAPORE, July 16, 2026 – Global trade is not returning to the rules, corridors and assumptions that shaped the previous decade. Instead, it is being rebuilt through disruption, with Asia and ASEAN emerging as pivotal players in a more fragmented, digital and resilience-driven trading system.

That is the central message of DMCC’s Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture report, launched in Singapore on Wednesday, 15 July. The report argues that the global trading system is being reshaped by tariff uncertainty, weakened multilateral institutions, artificial intelligence, supply chain diversification, critical minerals, clean energy competition and new financial infrastructure.

Speaking at the Singapore launch, Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and CEO of DMCC, said the pace of change had exceeded earlier expectations. “What has happened since has moved faster, hit harder and cut deeper than almost anyone anticipated,” he said, referring to tariff shocks, the acceleration of AI and geopolitical disruptions affecting shipping, energy supply, food security and global market stability.

Ahmed Bin Sulayem

The report draws on 12 global roundtables and a survey of more than 130 senior leaders and trade practitioners. Its most striking finding is that only 4% of respondents expect a best-case scenario for global trade over the next one to three years, while more than 80% expect slow, uneven growth and continued supply chain adjustment. For Asia and ASEAN, however, the rupture is also creating opportunity.

Middle Powers Move to the Centre

The report identifies a shift away from a single globalised trade order towards a more contested system built around bilateral deals, regional blocs and strategic middle powers.

Singapore, India, the UAE and Vietnam are cited as examples of countries benefiting from redirected trade flows because they are positioning themselves as hubs between competing systems rather than aligning completely with one side. The report notes that middle powers are increasingly filling the space left by weakening multilateral institutions.

At the launch, Bin Sulayem said the people closest to global trade are no longer planning for a return to the previous order. “They are not expecting to return to the world that made the last decade work. They are building for a different one,” he said. That different world is already visible in Asia.

The report highlights that South-South trade between developing economies now accounts for 35% of global trade, outpacing trade between advanced economies. This is a major structural shift, supported by regional trade agreements and the rising economic weight of emerging markets.

For ASEAN, the implications are significant. The region is no longer merely a low-cost manufacturing base. It is increasingly a strategic node in semiconductors, AI hardware, digital services, logistics and supply chain diversification.

From “China + 1” to “China + Many”

The report states that supply chains are now being rebuilt for resilience rather than pure efficiency. The earlier “China + 1” model has evolved into “China + many”, as companies diversify across multiple markets to reduce exposure to tariffs, export controls and geopolitical risk.

US imports from Vietnam have risen 345% since 2014, while imports from India have increased 94% and those from China have declined 5%. India and the UAE were among the top five recipients of greenfield investment globally in 2024.

For Southeast Asia, this trend creates openings in manufacturing, electronics, data infrastructure and supply chain services. Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam together accounted for nearly 30% of global semiconductor export growth by 2024, making ASEAN one of the world’s fastest-growing AI manufacturing ecosystems.

The report also notes that AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers and data centre hardware, expanded at five times the rate of non-AI goods in the first half of 2025. Though AI-related goods represented 15% of global trade by volume, they accounted for 43% of trade growth during the period.

Singapore’s Strategic Role

Singapore’s position is particularly important because it combines logistics, finance, digital trade policy, technology adoption and regional connectivity. The launch transcript highlighted Singapore as an example of a new “middle power playbook”, where countries act as hubs between competing systems. Singapore has also helped shape digital trade frameworks through agreements with partners including the EU and UK.

This matters as the next wave of trade becomes more digital and services-driven. The report forecasts global services exports to grow 4.8% in 2026, more than double the pace of merchandise trade, while digitally delivered services are expected to grow 6.1%.

ASEAN’s Digital Economy Framework Agreement, expected in 2026, could further strengthen the region’s position by creating a more integrated digital economy framework across the bloc.

The report’s conclusion is not that global trade is collapsing. It is that trade is changing character. Growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2026 before recovering to 2.6% in 2027, but the composition of growth is shifting towards AI-related goods, services, digital infrastructure and regional corridors.

For businesses in Asia, the central message is clear: disruption is no longer a temporary event. It is becoming the operating environment. Companies that treat diversification, digitalisation and regulatory agility as ongoing disciplines will be better placed than those waiting for a return to normal.

For ASEAN, the opportunity is to move from being a beneficiary of redirected supply chains to becoming an architect of the next trade order.